基于拉丁超立方抽样的风、光、负荷场景生成方法：风电光伏功率场景生成与典型场景概率计算，MATLAB实现,基于拉丁超立方抽样的风、光、负荷场景生成方法与典型场景概率研究-MATLAB实现及参考文献复现

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基于拉丁超立方抽样的风、光、负荷场景生成方法：风电光伏功率场景生成与典型场景概率计算，MATLAB实现,基于拉丁超立方抽样的风、光、负荷场景生成方法与典型场景概率研究——MATLAB实现及参考文献复现指南,基于拉丁超立方抽样的风，光，负荷场景生成方法 风电功率场景生成 ，光伏功率场景生成，负荷场景生成 通过后向场景削减BR得到典型场景及其概率 提供参考文献，完美复现 语言：MATLAB ,基于拉丁超立方抽样; 风电功率场景生成; 光伏功率场景生成; 负荷场景生成; 典型场景及其概率通过后向场景削减BR获得; 参考 MATLAB 复现; 参考文献,基于拉丁超立方的风、光、负荷场景生成及后向削减法研究
<link href="/image.php?url=https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/css/base.min.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="/image.php?url=https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/css/fancy.min.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="/image.php?url=https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/90430505/2/raw.css" rel="stylesheet"/><div id="sidebar" style="display: none"><div id="outline"></div></div><div class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="1" id="pf1"><div class="pc pc1 w0 h0"><img alt="" class="bi x0 y0 w1 h1" src="/image.php?url=https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/90430505/bg1.jpg"/><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y1 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">探索电力系统中风、光、负荷场景生成技术<span class="ff2">——</span>以拉丁超立方抽样及后向削减为例</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y2 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">摘要<span class="_ _0"></span>：<span class="_ _0"></span>本文将探讨在电力系统中，如何基于拉丁超立方抽样技术生成风、光、负荷场景，并</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y3 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">介绍通过<span class="_ _1"></span>后向场景<span class="_ _1"></span>削减（<span class="ff2">BR<span class="_ _1"></span></span>）得到典<span class="_ _1"></span>型场景及<span class="_ _1"></span>其概率的<span class="_ _1"></span>方法。本<span class="_ _1"></span>文将通过<span class="_ _2"> </span><span class="ff2">MATLAB<span class="_"> </span></span>语言展</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y4 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">示示例代码，并引用相关文献以供读者完美复现。</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y5 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">一、引言</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y6 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">随着<span class="_ _1"></span>可再<span class="_ _1"></span>生能<span class="_ _1"></span>源的<span class="_ _1"></span>快速<span class="_ _1"></span>发展<span class="_ _1"></span>，风<span class="_ _1"></span>能和<span class="_ _1"></span>光<span class="_ _1"></span>伏发<span class="_ _1"></span>电在<span class="_ _1"></span>电力<span class="_ _1"></span>系统<span class="_ _1"></span>中占<span class="_ _1"></span>据越<span class="_ _1"></span>来越<span class="_ _1"></span>重要<span class="_ _1"></span>的地<span class="_ _1"></span>位。<span class="_ _1"></span>同时<span class="_ _1"></span>，</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y7 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">电力负荷的波动也对电力系统稳定运行提出了更高的要求。<span class="_ _3"></span>因此，<span class="_ _3"></span>对风、<span class="_ _3"></span>光、<span class="_ _3"></span>负荷场景的准</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y8 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">确生成和典型场景的筛选，对于电力系统的规划和运行具有重要意义。</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y9 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">二、基于拉丁超立方抽样的风、光、负荷场景生成方法</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 ya ff2 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">1. <span class="_ _4"> </span><span class="ff1">风电功率场景生成</span></div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 yb ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">拉丁超立方抽样<span class="_ _3"></span>（<span class="ff2">Latin Hypercube Sampling</span>，<span class="_ _3"></span><span class="ff2">LHS<span class="ff1">）<span class="_ _5"></span>是一种常用的多维度抽样方法。<span class="_ _3"></span>在风电</span></span></div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 yc ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">功率场<span class="_ _1"></span>景生<span class="_ _1"></span>成中，<span class="_ _1"></span>我们可<span class="_ _1"></span>以根<span class="_ _1"></span>据风电<span class="_ _1"></span>场的历<span class="_ _1"></span>史数<span class="_ _1"></span>据，利<span class="_ _1"></span>用<span class="_ _2"> </span><span class="ff2">LHS<span class="_ _4"> </span></span>在<span class="_ _1"></span>多维空<span class="_ _1"></span>间中<span class="_ _1"></span>生成大<span class="_ _1"></span>量的<span class="_ _1"></span>风</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 yd ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">电功率样本。<span class="_ _0"></span>这些样本可以充分覆盖风电功率的可能变化范围，<span class="_ _0"></span>从而为电力系统的规划和运</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 ye ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">行提供参考。</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 yf ff2 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">2. <span class="_ _4"> </span><span class="ff1">光伏功率场景生成</span></div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y10 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">与风电<span class="_ _1"></span>功率<span class="_ _1"></span>场景生<span class="_ _1"></span>成类似<span class="_ _1"></span>，光<span class="_ _1"></span>伏功率<span class="_ _1"></span>场景生<span class="_ _1"></span>成也<span class="_ _1"></span>可以采<span class="_ _1"></span>用<span class="_ _2"> </span><span class="ff2">LHS<span class="_ _4"> </span></span>方<span class="_ _1"></span>法。根<span class="_ _1"></span>据光<span class="_ _1"></span>伏电站<span class="_ _1"></span>的历<span class="_ _1"></span>史</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y11 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">数据，<span class="_ _1"></span>我们<span class="_ _1"></span>可以利<span class="_ _1"></span>用<span class="_ _2"> </span><span class="ff2">LHS<span class="_ _4"> </span></span>生<span class="_ _1"></span>成大量<span class="_ _1"></span>的光<span class="_ _1"></span>伏功率<span class="_ _1"></span>样本。<span class="_ _1"></span>这些<span class="_ _1"></span>样本可<span class="_ _1"></span>以反映<span class="_ _1"></span>光伏<span class="_ _1"></span>发电的<span class="_ _1"></span>随机<span class="_ _1"></span>性</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y12 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">和波动性，为电力系统的稳定运行提供支持。</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y13 ff2 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">3. <span class="_ _4"> </span><span class="ff1">负荷场景生成</span></div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y14 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">负荷场景的<span class="_ _1"></span>生成同样<span class="_ _1"></span>可以采用<span class="_ _2"> </span><span class="ff2">LHS<span class="_ _6"> </span></span>方法。根据<span class="_ _1"></span>历史电力<span class="_ _1"></span>负荷数据，<span class="_ _1"></span>我们可以利<span class="_ _1"></span>用<span class="_ _6"> </span><span class="ff2">LHS<span class="_"> </span></span>生成</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y15 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">大量的负荷样本。<span class="_ _0"></span>这些样本可以反映电力负荷的变化规律和趋势，<span class="_ _0"></span>为电力系统的需求侧管理</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y16 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">提供依据。</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y17 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">三、后向场景削减（<span class="ff2">BR</span>）得到典型场景及其概率</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y18 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">在生成<span class="_ _1"></span>了大<span class="_ _1"></span>量的风<span class="_ _1"></span>、光<span class="_ _1"></span>、负荷<span class="_ _1"></span>场景<span class="_ _1"></span>后，<span class="_ _1"></span>我们需<span class="_ _1"></span>要通<span class="_ _1"></span>过后向<span class="_ _1"></span>场景<span class="_ _1"></span>削减（<span class="_ _1"></span><span class="ff2">BR</span>）<span class="_ _1"></span>方法，<span class="_ _1"></span>筛选<span class="_ _1"></span>出典</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y19 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">型的场景并计<span class="_ _1"></span>算其概率。<span class="ff2">BR<span class="_"> </span></span>方法是一种基<span class="_ _1"></span>于统计学的方<span class="_ _1"></span>法，通过对场<span class="_ _1"></span>景进行逐步剔<span class="_ _1"></span>除和优</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y1a ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">化，<span class="_ _7"></span>得到具有代表性的典型场景。<span class="_ _7"></span>这些典型场景可以反映电力系统的实际运行情况，<span class="_ _7"></span>为电力</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y1b ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">系统的规划和运行提供有力支持。</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y1c ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">四、<span class="ff2">MATLAB<span class="_ _6"> </span></span>示例代码</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y1d ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">下面是<span class="_ _1"></span>一个<span class="_ _1"></span>简单的<span class="_ _2"> </span><span class="ff2">MATLAB<span class="_"> </span></span>示例代码<span class="_ _1"></span>，用<span class="_ _1"></span>于演示<span class="_ _1"></span>风、<span class="_ _1"></span>光、负<span class="_ _1"></span>荷场<span class="_ _1"></span>景的生<span class="_ _1"></span>成和<span class="_ _1"></span>典型场<span class="_ _1"></span>景的<span class="_ _1"></span>筛</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y1e ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">选：</div></div><div class="pi" data-data='{"ctm":[1.611830,0.000000,0.000000,1.611830,0.000000,0.000000]}'></div></div>
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